How To Use Poisson Distribution to Predict Next Goal Scorer?
Poisson distribution helps predict goal scorers in football. This math tool uses past data to calculate the chance of a player scoring. It focuses on team performance, player stats, and game conditions. Bettors and analysts use this method to make smart choices. Today’s article will explain how to apply Poisson distribution to find likely goal scorers in matches.
What is Poisson Distribution in Football?
Poisson distribution predicts rare events in fixed intervals. In football, it calculates goal probabilities using average scoring rates. The formula P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x! determines the chance of x goals occurring, with μ as the expected goal (xG) count.
Experts at Iranshartbandi say this method applies to various football markets like Match Outcome, Correct Score, and Over/Under Goals. Assumptions for football Poisson models include: goals happen randomly and independently; scoring rates stay constant during matches; past performance predicts future outcomes.
The model also focuses on team strength, home advantage, and recent form. It does not account for injuries, weather, or tactical changes. Bettors use Poisson to create odds and find value bets by comparing results to bookmaker offerings.
Start By Collecting Necessary Data
Collect the following data points to predict goal scorers using Poisson distribution:
Historical Goal Data: Track goals scored by teams and players over past seasons. For example, Manchester City scored 94 goals in the 2022-2023 Premier League season.
Player Positions and Minutes: Record each player’s primary position and average minute per game. Let us give you an example so you understand. Erling Headland played 2,764 minutes as a striker in 2022 and 2023.
Another critical data point is the recent performance. You must gather the last 5 to 10 game statistics for players and teams, including:
- Goals Scored
- Shots Target
- Expected Goals (xG)
- Assists
- Important Passes
Consider the team’s form as well. Collect data about win/loss/draw and goal differences. Learning about the opposition’s strength is also very important. Focus on the defensive record of the opposition.
Next, Calculate Team Goal Expectancy
Use the following formula to determine the attack strength:
Home goals per game = Total home goals / Home games played
Away goals per game = Total away goals / Away games played
Next, assess the opponent’s defense:
Goals conceded per game = Total goals conceded / Total games
Now, use the Poisson formula to calculate expected goals (xG):
P(x) = (e^-λ * λ^x) / x!
For example, if λ = 1.8, the probability of scoring 2 goals is 0.3014. Interpreting the results requires you to sum probabilities for each goal count. For instance:
- 0 Goals (16.5%)
- 1 Goal (29.7%)
- 2 Goals (26.7%)
- 3+ Goals (27.1%)
Calculate Individual Player Goal Probability
Start by calculating goals per minute by dividing total goals by minutes played. Adjust this figure based on the player’s position, assigning multipliers of 1.0 for strikers, 0.7 for midfielders, and 0.3 for defenders.
Consider recent form by averaging goals scored over the last five games and dividing by 450 minutes. Likewise, focus on the opposition’s strength by multiplying the adjusted rate by the ratio of league average goals conceded to the team’s goals conceded.
Next, apply the Poisson formula: P(x) = (e^-λ * λ^x) / x! where λ equals the adjusted goals per minute multiplied by expected match minutes. Calculate the probability of scoring at least one goal using 1 – P(0).
Then, compare these probabilities among team players to identify top goal threats and potential value bets. For example, a striker with λ = 0.5 has a 39.3% chance of scoring one or more goals.
Refine and Apply the Poisson Model for Goal Scorer Prediction
Create an accurate goal scorer prediction model and adjust for game context by considering tactical setups, substitutions, and set-piece takers. Combine team and individual Poisson calculations, weighting factors like recent form (30%), historical performance (40%), and opposition strength (30%).
Use Excel or Python for calculations. Rank players by goal probability and identify value bets where your odds differ from bookmakers’. Remember model limitations: it can’t account for in-game changes or psychological factors. For advanced analysis, incorporate expected assists (xA), adjust for injuries/suspensions, and consider head-to-head performance.
For example, a striker with 0.5 goals/game, taking penalties against a weak defense, might have a 45% chance of scoring, compared to a bookmaker’s implied probability of 40%, indicating a potential value bet. Moreover, you can find the easiest football bets using the Poisson method.